Hurricane forecasters predict fierce season

2005 could be more active than last year, with 7-9 storms expected to be hurricanes The 2005 hurricane season has opened with a chill. Forecasters are predicting more hurricanes and more severe hurricanes than they did in June 2004 for one of the most disastrous years on record. "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active season is very high," said Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator, in a news release. The National Hurricane Center predicts the same number of storms that were forecast last year (12-15), but has bumped up the number of hurricanes by one (seven to nine) and increased the number of major hurricanes by one (three to five). "We have above-average water temperatures and neutral to -- at worst -- weak El Nino. That is similar to what we had last year," said National Hurricane Center specialist Stacy Stewart. The warmer sea temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean help tropical storms form. A strong El Nino, or Pacific sea temperatures, creates west-to-east winds that inhibit strengthening of storms. "There's always some uncertainty," Stewart said, but he couldn't find much positive in the forecast. "The good news is we still have a couple of months for folks to prepare. The bad news is we're running out of time." A local National Weather Service forecaster urged Charleston area residents to begin preparing homes, stocking emergency and recovery supplies and preparing evacuation plans. "We wish we could say none of them are coming this way but, at this point, it's impossible to tell where or when," said meteorologist Joe Calderone. "Hopefully, we won't need to come to that point." Hurricane season starts in two weeks, on June 1. June through November are the months when tropical cyclones are expected to form. They are massive land-falling ocean storms that can threaten people and property for hundreds of miles inland. The annual hurricane center's June prediction opens the season. It's been published this year in conjunction with National Hurricane Preparedness Week, which runs through Saturday. In Charleston, the crux of the season tends to run from August through September, when West African monsoons generate storms that strengthen as they cross the Atlantic and curl toward the Southeastern coast. But hurricanes have formed as early as April and as late as December. The hurricane center forecast is a little more dire than the April prediction of "Hurricane Guru" Dr. William Gray of the Tropical Meteorology Project, who called for two fewer storms than last year's 15, with seven becoming hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The 2004 season was one of the most destructive on record. Four hurricanes, including three major storms, pounded Florida in six weeks, more than have ever landed in a season in 130 years of record-keeping. Three storms, two of which were hurricanes, made landfall in South Carolina, the first time in a century and a half that so many storms have landed and the first time since 1959 that two hurricanes have struck. Hurricane Gaston landed near Charleston on Aug. 29 and caused an estimated $20 million in damage. Hurricane Charley hit on Aug. 14 but didn't cause much damage here. The hurricane center forecast will be updated in August in response to changing conditions. 2005 ATLANTIC FORECAST Tropical storms: 12-15 Hurricanes: 7-9 Major hurricanes: 3-5 GRAY'S HURRICANE FORECAST 13 named storms 7 storms becoming hurricanes 3 hurricanes with winds 111 mph or stronger Probabilities for a major hurricane: 53% U.S. East Coast 41% Gulf Coast Source: The Tropical Meteorology Project EMERGENCY RESOURCES -- 2005 hurricane season preparedness information is available at The Emergency Email Wireless Network. Go to http://www.emergencyemail.org/hurricane2005.html -- To sign up for notifications about area natural disasters and other emergencies by e-mail and cell phone, go to http://www.emergencyemail.org

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